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| Dartline™ |
 represents immediate change - scroll down.
March 6, 2007, 7:30am
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The S&P 500 index slipped 13.05 to close at 1374.12, near the bottom of the trading range - 1373.97/1391.86. Support at 1360.98, representing the low of November 3, 2006, should be near-term support and important number to determine the extent of the deterioration. More volatility ahead while the market establishes a base zone to work up from. At 1360 stability is essential. Bond prices were moderate as the 10-year Treasury note yield was 4.51 percent - good sign as investors haven't rushed to safe-haven assets. The dollar was higher against other major currencies including the yen. Going forward, the international markets gained, breaking a five day losing streak, which will improve sentiment for U.S. equities. Prudently buy trading stocks, and treat the market as a short term vehicle.
... Stock Pickers, It's Your Moment to Shine .... With the past week's volatility in the market, it's time for WSJ readers to show their mettle and get their stock picks ready for a new Investment Dartboard game. In Contest No.27, as in the past, six readers' picks will vie with a portfolio picked by Sunday Journal staffers tossing darts at the stock listing from the newspaper. The last day to enter will be Sunday, March 18. The winner among the six readers for the six months April through September 2007 wins lifetime bragging rights and a Sunday Journal tote bag. Readers and dart choices will be announced Sunday, April 8. The rules: (1) Choose just one stock from the NYSE or Nasdaq markets and send your choice via email to the sundaydartboard@wsj.com address. No entries by regular mail. (2) You must include your name, address, daytime phone number, email address. (3) Brokers and other investment professionals can't compete. (4) You must be willing to be interviewed. Good Luck!
March 5, 2007, 7:30am ...  ... What now Stocksmirf? There are plenty of good arguments why last week's blip was a mere anomaly, and why the market can go higher. Corporate earnings have been on a record run. Interest rates are low and likely head lower. Inflation only exists in Bernanke's mind and stockslingers want the market to go up, up and away. But the fact remains - the willingness of investors worldwide to turn like scared rabbits and run on something as meaningless as a drop in the fledging Chinese equity market. Indeed, the event indicates that big investors had their fingers on the sell button. Does that happen in a bull market? Hell no! And it's not prudent to step in and buy stocks when stockslingers and heartless program-trading computers are ready to dive at the first sign of trouble. And don't blame Greenspan - he's not the first horn to blow on the prospect of recession (his time was another story). The economic indicators have been pointing to a slowing economy for months. The housing downturn is getting worse. Corporate earnings, despite achieving their record in the fourth quarter look like they're peaking, and the private-equity boom can evaporate in a heartbeat. ... Wall Street is split over late week's big drop - a short term dump or entered a bear market? Consensus suggests that there's no reason that stocks shouldn't resume their push into record territory in the coming months, claiming no material change in fundamental terms on the average consumer, corporate earnings, manufacturing activity or inflation. Yet, others argue that stocks are overpriced and the economy is ready to tank big time. So what is it? ... The nearest thing to a crystal ball possessed by Dartline is the S&P 500 index. What, why and how the index acts on a any given period represents the master pointer to the direction of the U.S. stock market. This idea has been continually addressed and the superior performance of the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hegel Fund portfolio underscore its real worth. Currently, the index sits at 1,387.17 with a five day range of 1456.95 to 1380.87. Therefore, a zone has been established. Under our application of selective probability - a quantitative measure of the likelihood of a given event - and when determined, it should be used. In the last five days the S&P index had established a trading range. A decline below 1380 would indicate the probability of a further weakening, while 1456.95 would prove likewise on the upside. At the present, 1365 has been determined as near-term support and 1435 as upside resistance. Thus, our range has been narrowed and predictable. Limit your commitment and wait for the dust to settle, and the bla-bla-bla to stop.
March 2, 2007, 7:30am ... ...Considering yesterday's reaction in the morning, the S&P 500 index came close to losing 5 percent from the February highs hit the week before. Wall Street pundits claim a "floor of support" is due. Don't believe the spin and continue to converse cash. If you were following Dartline, most long positions would have been materially reduced. Indeed, if you're still in, attempt to liquidate into any rally. In the current environment long-term investing is out of fashion. .... What's next? Since the S&P 500 index is our :"post" as in posting the future direction of the broader stock market, what happens next requires a technical confirmation. For example (use archives): (1) December 11, 2006 said. "At 1409.84 as Friday's closing price for the S&P 500 index with a range of 1403.67 to 1414.09 should be the extent of upside resistance, while a decline below 1403 would suggests weaker values." In this directive a clear channel was established. (2) December 28, 2006 said: "The Standard & Poor's 500 index at 1426.84 remains our safety [valve]. .... Support is set at 1410 and represents an important Dartmarker to set your sights on." As suggested - if the S&P remained above 1410 you're a buyer with limited risk. Look at the SFHF portfolio gains to underscore this prediction. (3) January 17, 2007 said: "The resiliency of the S&P 500 index to advance despite contracting volume and lack of conviction in most sectors indicates that the underlying strength cannot be denied. At this point, one cannot deny the tape. For now, remain aggressive, but prudent ..." (4) February 5, 2007 said: "Don't panic. For the time being, 1450 is still upside resistance, while 1410 support. Within this range there are opportunities to participate ... without inflecting critical risk.' (5) February 20, 2007 said {scroll down in this column). "With the S&P index at 1455.55 the technical underpinnings to the market remain positive. .... Use 1435 as support to reduce any downside risk ..." (6) February 23, 2007, 10:73am said. "S&P 500 index below 1435 represents interim sell signal. Reduce exposure on long positions.". The rest was history. ... What's next? Yesterday, the S&P 500 closed at 1403.17 3.65. As stated on February 28, 2007, 7:30am, "Interim phase support is set at 1365, while 1325 represents primary support ..." Thus, we ave established our near-term floor. For now, remain balanced with most cash reserves on the sidelines. Allow the general market to point its direction with limited long positions.
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View
From the Bottom - A roundup of the day's performance |
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March 6, 2007, 4:00pm ...Day Trader for the day shows a gain of $2,700.00... Adjustments to the 60-Day Summary list shows: (1) sold put options in NDEPG.X for a gain of $100,000.00. Net realized change for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio ("SFHF") is a gain of $102,700.00, and for the month to date a gain of $312,100.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses.
March 5, 2007, 4:00pm ... Day Trader for the day show a gain of $16,200. ... Adjustments to the 60-Day Summary list shows: (1) sold SDS for a gain of $25,000.00; (2) covered short on HMIN for a gain of $67,000.00. Net realized change for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio is a gain of $108,200.00, and for the month to date a gain of $209,400.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses.
March 2, 2007, 4:00pm. ... Day Trader for the day shows a loss of $4,000. ... Adjustments to the 60-Day Summary list shows: (1) sold SDS for a gain of $9,200.00; (2) sold SCT for a gain of $162,000.00. Net realized change for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio is a gain of $167,200.00, and for the month to date a gain of $101,200.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses.
.For the fourth calendar quarter of 2006 on the SFHF portfolio. Total performance, including unrealized gains, was $1,027,724.90 on weighted capital of $4,832,125.72, representing  0.2127%. for the period ending December 31, 2006.
*** based on the weighted portfolio value adjusted daily.
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.. March 6, 2007
... 3:36pm ... BUY SDS - last $60.70. S&P 500 index had problem moving above near-term resistance at 1400.
... 11:08am ... SHORT New Century Financial (NEW) - last $5.915 Under distribution with limited upside on deteriorating fundamentals. No EXIT POINT determined.
March 5, 2007... 3:27pm ... BUY call options in Amgen Inc. (AMGN) April '07 call strike price $60.00 (YAADL.X) last ask $3.90. On technical considerations, AMGN is at support with upside to $72.00 likely within five-weeks. note: High risk idea... 10:01am ... BUY Scottish Re Group (SCT) - last $4.36. Under accumulation after new group took control. (read prior commentaries by searching from message board0
March 2, 2007... 2:52pm ... BUY SDS - last $60.90. S&P 500 index below 1400 indicates further weakness to 1365 as next test..... 2:37pm ... SHORT Home Inns & Hotel Management Inc. (HMIN) - last $37.45 . HMIN develops and manages economy hotel in China. Long term view has moderated,while on hear-term basis HMIN is overbought. Under limited distribution that has accelerated. SHORT for cover in the $26-$29 range.... 1:17pm ... BUY #3 on BCRX - last $9.31. Add to position on valuation.
... 11:40am ... BUY First Consulting Group Inc. (FCGI) - last $12,05. FCGI provides information services to healthcare and related life sciences organization in North America, Europe and Asia. Excellent business model, improving fundamentals, and managements desire to expand operating base are indicative factors for further revenue gains. At 18 times future earnings, FCGI is a value play in a strong sector. BUY as limited risk, near-term candidate. No EXIT POINT determined.
Ticker |
Last
Trade |
Direction |
Entrance
Point |
Exit
Point |
| FCGI |
March 2 , 2007 |
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$12..05 |
* |
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| P/E Ratio: |
54 |
| Forward P/E Ratio: |
18 |
| Float Shares2: |
19.7 M |
| Company Guidance: |
* |
| Recommendation3: |
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| Support4: |
near term 10.90 |
| Resistance5: |
14.50 |
| Under Accumulation6: |
yes |
| Under Distribution7: |
limited |
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... DAY TRADER
.. March 6, 2007
... 10:57am .. SELL VOL - last $29.15. Performance not to expectations as macd contracting.
... 10:36am ... BUY Volt Information Systems (VOL) - last $28.88. After off 2.57 points, VOT has finally received better macd numbers. Trade to $30.40 likely.
March 5, 2007 1:54pm ... COVER SHORT #2 on SDS - last $61.67.... 1:28pm ... SHORT #2 on SDS - last $62.08.... 12:55pm .... COVER SHORT on SDS - last $61.90.... 12:34pm ... SHORT SDS - last $62.05 ..... 12:11pm ... SELL SDS - last $61.85.... 10:30am ... BUY SDS - last $61.60.
March 2, 2007... 1:31pm ... SELL TSAI - last $31.10. Failed to attract up volume after false start.... 1:10pm ... BUY Transaction Systems (TSAI) - last $31.30. After declining over 4 points, TSAI has been under accumulation with improving macd. BUT with test of $32.38..
.... From the 60-Day Summary list
... March 6, 2007
... 9:53am .. change exit price of NDEPG.X to $5.70. Take profit
... 9:45am ... SELL NDE Ap '07 35 out (NDEPG.X) - last bid $7.00.
March 5, 2007... 10:40am ... COVER SHORT on HMIN - last $34.10 Originally suggested as SHORT at $37.45 on 03.02.07. Take profit.... 10:12am ... SELL SDS - last $61.40. S&P index found support at 1390.
March 2, 2007... 12:34pm ... SELL Scottish Re Group (SCT) - last $4.46. Suggest at average cost of $3.65 on 02.21.07. Take profit and allow the new group to pull the stock lower to acquire more common stock.... 9:37am .. SELL SDS - last $60.50. Take profit.
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Net liquidation value of Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund (SFHF) portfolio for the period ending 02.28.07.........,........ $ 5,194,411.00
REALIZEDGAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ........................ ......... $277,601.00
REALIZED GAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio. ...............................$338,049.00
REALIZEDGAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ...... ......................... $371,020.00
REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY '07 in the SFHF portfolio .....................................$615,500.00
REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY '07 in the SFHF portfolio ....................$1,092,241.00
REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR MONTH OF MARCH '07 to date in the SFHF portfolio ........................ $312,100.00
UNREALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) in the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio.
March 6, 2007, 4:00pm ........... $84,100.25
March 5, 2007, 4:00pm ........... $20,350.00
March 2, 2007, 4:00pm ............$21,659.74
March 1, 2007, 4:00pm ........... $05,100.00
February 28, 2007, 4:00pm ..... $69,451.04
February 27, 2007, 4:00pm ....$225,225.00
February 26, 2007, 4:00pm ....$261,084.05
__________________________________
Prior Dartline summaries .....March 1, 2007, 2:11pm ... ... S&P 500 index found interim strength at 1400 and triggered buying interest. However, further weakness is likely and don't be fooled by the upside action. Sell long positions without "story" to conserve cash. ... 10:00 ... ... S&P 500 index support re-set at 1300. Key indicator at 1300 is needed to stabilize broader market. ..... 9:00am ... S&P 500 index futures selling-off, suggesting renewed downside pressure and break below 1396. Reduce long positions further; need for capital preservation warranted. ... 7:30am .... The S&P 500 index closed at 1,406.82 7.78 on the partial recovery of the Shanghai stock market and the welcome words of Fed Chairman Bernanke who said there was no single trigger to Tuesday's market slide and financial markets "seem to be working well." Yet, after how violent and quick the plunge of 416 points was on Tuesday, a rebound appeared a logical progression. Now the $64 question: How firm will this rebound be? Without a crystal ball, the answer belongs with the gods. For us lowly dart throwers, we must anticipate the future direction of the S&P and that event will be the key. Yesterday, the index declined to 1,396.65, therefore, a near-term support is determined. If the index holds above that number, nibble on the long side; keep your powder dry, and basically remain on the sidelines, except to "ambush" a special situation.
February 28, 2007, 7:30am ... ... With China market recovered 35% of yesterday's loss, a "dead cat" bounce will lift stocks. Follow our lead during day. ... 7:30am ... ...The S&P 500 index dropped 50.33 points or 3.5% to close at 1,399.04, the worst one-day decline since September 2001. Interim phase support is set at 1,365, while 1325 represents primary support and a significant area whether long-term stability can be maintained. How the index acts today will establish whether the decline is the beginning of a more serious correction or merely a few days of anxiety. Forget about fundamental considerations, since the general market will be fueled by fear. Don't get trapped by any "dead cat" bounce until a new base has been established. Keep your powder dry. We pray you responded to our S&P 500 index announced yesterday at 10:27am to "reduce exposure on long positions." When the index failed to hold our pre-determined support of 1435 the momentum was set for further weakness. Naturally, if you failed to heed the advise, your losses may increase before the market rights itself.
February 27, 2007, 10:27am ... ... S&P 500 index below 1435 represents interim sell signal. Reduce exposure on long positions. ... International markets weak to warrant cautious posture. S&P 500 support at 1435.00 remains key number. ... 7:30 am ...The S&P 500 index fell 1.35 points to close at 1,499.37, representing the first four-session losing streak since August '06. However, the modest decline was within acceptable levels considering the range of advance since August 1, 2006 when the broad index stood at 1,270.72. The culprit can be traced by the inane statements by the former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who warned of a possible recession in the U.S. before year end, claiming "stabilizing" profit margins. What does stabilizing mean? His remarks were not consistent with reality, and appeared uttered by a fool in declining health. At careful look at the big pictures shows an expanding U.S. economy, fueling worldwide growth and the new demands by the emerging international middle class. Only the U.S. has the technical resources to make it happen. That's the reason why the benchmark 10-year Treasury bonds are yielding a meager 4.631% as bonds benefiting from safe-haven flows and surplus assets. As for oil, an increase to $85.00 per barrel would be needed to cause inflationary pressures. Currently at $61.39 a barrel, oil is cheap and supports new values moving from the Middle East to the industrial markets. Trading oil for paper supports higher stock prices. Use the current pause to strengthen your equity holding
Prior Best Ideas ... March 2, 2007, 7:30. ... BUY #2 on BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. (BCRX) at - last 9.88. NCRX designs and develops novel drug that block key enzymes involved in cancer, cardiovascular diseases, etc .Originally focused as a "bird-flue" play, the company has a promising pipeline, which the 'crown jewel' is Fodosine, a oncology candidate as an inhibitor that controls abnormal multiplication of T-cells. Being the only such drug in development, NCRX recently started phase II study under a special FDA protocol assessment.- a significant factor since FDA can grant approval without phase III trials. The event triggers a $5 million milestone payment from partner Mundipharma. Fodosine has the potential of being a $1 billion plus drug. However, may not have the drug to market until '08 at the earliest. Therefore, the company's antiviral drug, Peramivir, in phase II trials remains the near term play. The U.S. government's Department of Health and Human Services awarded BCRX $102.6 million to develop Peramivir.for seasonal and life-threatening influenza. Fundamentals are adequate. With 23.3 million share float, 45% participation by institutions, management holding 23%, while 12% of outstanding short, BCRX is within appropriate standards for a takeover. Baker Brothers Advisors LLC holds a 6% stake in BCRX and may approach Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD) for a linkup. Consider BCRX a "special situtaion, high speculation" BUY in a weak stock market. Add to position.
March 1, 2007... 3:00pm ... BUY put options in NDE April '07 strike $35.00 put (NDEPG.X) - last ask $3.70. NDE makes a business in Alt-A mortages, which are between prime and sub-prime mortages. With lower profits,, contracting business and possible liquidity issues, NDE may have fundamental problems which will affect technicals. Buying the put options offers greater leverage, especially with the underlying stock tracking lower, possibly to the $25-$29 range... 11:36am .. BUY #3 on SDS - last $59.74 .... 10:45am ... BUY #2 on SDS - last $60.20... 9:32am ... SDS opened at $61.40. ... 9:15am .. BUY PT ULTRSHRT SP500 PS (SDS) - pre-market $59.65. S&P 500 profile (ETF) on shorting underlying stocks.
February 28, 2007... 1:12pm ... BUY Staples Inc. (SPLS) - last $26.07. At 16 times forward earnings and 23% return on equity SPLS is a value play with limited downside risk. EXIT POINT established at $29.50 mid-term... 12:11pm .. BUY #2 NVLS - last $32.00. Add to long position.... 11:01am .. BUY Novellus Systems (NVLS) - last $32.44 Under accumulation ahead of earnings. At 17 times forward P/E, NVLS has excellent short term value into the $34-$36 range. 9:40am ... BUY SDS - last $60.20.
February 27, 2007,.. 11:58am ... BUY PT Ultrashort SP500 PS (SDS) - last $57.84. S&P 500 profile index (ETF) based on shorting the underlying stocks. With the S&P 500 index failed to support the 1435 level establish a technical sell signal. SDS will follow the decline to interim support at 1365.00.
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