Beat The Dart -"Picking Stocks the Old-fashioned Way"

With the S&P 500 index closing above 1400, current at 1401.86

9.52 points, the underlying general market has more resiliency that originally predicted. Maintain interim support at 1373.97, while holding 1390 as yellow flag (representing caution). A new near-term resistance is fixed at 1415.89 (established February 28, 2007). Use this range to plan your investment decisions with volatility continues as a critical factor. Stay focused on keeping risks in check, reduce any position that fails to respond or lacks near-term potential. There are good opportunities only if you consider the current environment as a trading vehicle, and not the time to consider longer term commitments. ...Yesterday's broad advance was based on investors confident following gains in Europe and Asian markets, while the dollar moved higher against the yen and easing concerns about whether global liquidity would tighten. Good execute for the rise, but going forward requires a health economy and continued earnings growth. Dartline is eager for a signal on the health of the economy and the Labor Department's much-anticipated February employment report may lead the way. Indeed, strong employment numbers would be seen as a sign for robust consumer spending since more employment means more spending. Stay vigilant until the report is fully reviewed.

March 8, 2007, 4:30pm ...

... Caught a whale! New Century Financial (NEW) gave us the biggest single profit to date, booking $887,920.00, excluding unrealized gain from the remaining position. The history behind the performance is straightforward: On March 6th at 11:08 am ET the originally position was taken at $5.915 as a short sell with the commentary. "Under distribution with limited upside on deteriorating fundamentals. No EXIT POINT determined." The next day, March 7th at 10:21 am ET, NEW was again suggested at $5.74. "SHORT #2 ... Under distribution as a near-term casualty of sub-prime mortgages market. A clear Chapter 11 candidate and liquidation with shareholders receiving zero. EXIT POINT $0.01." At the closed today, NEW was $3.87 when Mike O'Hare head of U.S. cash sales and trading for JP Morgan Chase & Co said, "... New Century Financial may be going bankrupt." (as reported by Jonathan Tempe of Reuters at 4:21am ET. .... The entire purpose of Beat the Dart is to offer the best information and conclusions available using subjective probability models to effectively enhance the financial resources of our members and friends. The exemplary performance speaks for itself. Not that our analysis is 100% accurate, only materially sufficient to be a useful analytical tool, second to none. No one owns and has privileges or rights to this technology other than Beat the Dart. Isolating NEW was not to boost, merely to underscore our sincere desire to be right most of the time. ... 7:30am ...

.. Yesterday's technical bounce lacked follow-through. Not a good sign. Add conflicting statements from current and former Fed officials and you have the bulls and bears scrambling like two harlot in need of a john. Speaking at a conference in New York, former Fed Chairman Greenspan said that the decline in home sales has bottomed out, while Fed president Michael Moshow said that "soft economic data cast some doubt on the his previously strong outlook." The tug of words has created the volatility with no end in sight. With contracting volume and no clear direct the market can get violent, depending who has Wall Street's ear. ... Just below the surface remains the economic data, the markets in Asia and Europe, and especially the carry trade. The practice of borrowing money at lower interest rates in one country to invest in higher-yielding assets elsewhere is a precarious game. Now, as the strengthening Japanese economy has lifted both rates and the yen the result makes the yen carry trade a risky proposition. The true implications may damage the international markets beyond the major settlement date of March 31, 2007. ... A survey issued by Automatic Data Processing showed employment grew by 57,000 in February, the weakest job growth since July '03. The Fed Beige Book also presented signs of weakness. Friday will be the big day - the key employment report is due. Indeed, the pros are hesitant to take big positions ahead of the report. ... The S&P 500 index

3.44 to close at 1391.97. Remaining above 1390 was a positive event and established near-term support at 1373.97 (March 5th level). Therefore, trading with a upside bias is warranted, providing you close out positions when in doubt. Play "special situations' and ideas that have real stories. Consistent vigilance and preservation of capital are paramount.

... Stock Pickers, It's Your Moment to Shine .... With the past week's volatility in the market, it's time for WSJ readers to show their mettle and get their stock picks ready for a new Investment Dartboard game. In Contest No.27, as in the past, six readers' picks will vie with a portfolio picked by Sunday Journal staffers tossing darts at the stock listing from the newspaper. The last day to enter will be Sunday, March 18. The winner among the six readers for the six months April through September 2007 wins lifetime bragging rights and a Sunday Journal tote bag. Readers and dart choices will be announced Sunday, April 8. The rules: (1) Choose just one stock from the NYSE or Nasdaq markets and send your choice via email to the sundaydartboard@wsj.com address. No entries by regular mail. (2) You must include your name, address, daytime phone number, email address. (3) Brokers and other investment professionals can't compete. (4) You must be willing to be interviewed. Good Luck!

... . Purpose of the arrows: - projecting that DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P barometers will close higher at the end of the day. - projected consolidating barometers with limited directional action. - projecting all three barometers declining for the days.

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