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first look
Dartline™ November 14, 2006 - 2:54pm

Again, we were ahead of the "serge of buying. " At 1:03pm we recognized added liquidity entering the market. Now S&P 500 is above interim resistance and closing in on 1400, last 1391.20. .. (1:03pm) Inflation at wholesale level declined at record pace in October, led by oil prices. ... Liquidity has increased in last 30 minutes. ... S&P 500 has failed to move above 1389. Wall Street using that number to claim equities are overbought- another reason to follow our favorite. ... The bears are having a hard time gaining an advantage over the freaky bulls. It appears that the billions of dollars on the sidelines are finally attempting to ride the bulls into the future. The words uttered yesterday by Richard Fisher, President of the Federal Reserve Bank in Dallas that the economy continued to grow steadily, and indicated that inflation was not presenting problems, have a familiar ring. Since early October this column has said the very same thing, and the underlying strength of the market cannot be denied. Intertwined are the elements of an expanding economy being driven by lower inflation, lower interest rates and lower oil prices. The 3-lows is our golden elixir. With increasing momentum after a brief consolation, the market looks higher. But don't allow greed to cloud your judgment. Today's release of the Labor Department's Producer Price Index and Commerce Department's retail numbers for October will be telling. If these numbers confirm moderate inflation, while expanding growth, higher equity prices are a given. But keep your eye on the advance/decline numbers, yesterday the advances were less than stellar and the overall volume lacked conviction. Remember the support line of the S&P 500 - 1327.10. We have room to flex, as the index closed at 1384.42, but don't be complacent ... Buy values prudently, maintain a careful and constant review of your portfolio, and continually weed laggards and add special situations that demonstrated superior fundamentals. Plan for the winds of January.

Ask yourself the question: Is my money making me richer, or am I treading water and wasting time?

... Purpose of the arrows: - projecting that DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P barometers will close higher at the end of the day. - projected consolidating barometers with limited directional action. - projecting all three barometers declining for the day.

... BEAT THE DART announces new features: ... Effective today "VIEW FROM THE BOTTOM" will be posted as a roundup of the day's performance, including overview and comments on the STOCKSMIRF Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio.

... BEAT THE DART announces new features: ... Our Message Board and "Contact Us" elements are available at no cost to keep you up-to-date with timely information. Our Fantasy Hedge Fund gives you a concise overview of how investment ideas are executed. All transactions are posted on the Message Board.

 

 
View From the Bottom - A roundup of the day's performance

November 14, 2006, 5:00pm. ... Day Trader profits for the day were $126,000.00, while for the month to date, profits totaled $181,550.00 in the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio. ... Adjustments to the 60-Day Summary, which did not include Day Trader's activities were : (1) Sold VRSO for a gain of $54,400.00; (2) Sold THC for a loss of $12,300.00; and Sold EEEE for a loss of $13,250.00. For the day net gain was $28,850.00. ... Decisions for all these "transactions" are re-viewable from the Today's Action column, Message Board or the actual time sensitive commentaries notes: On the Message Board the time allocation is based on Mountain Time. If you need further analysis please go to the Message Board and click "The Dart Bin." No charge of any of our features or services offered. ... Indeed, our performance looks too good to be true, but when reviewed by dates and time stamps frozen on the Message Board at the moment of netcasting, you'll see each event has been properly recorded. For a further analysis, the actual individual trade prices (intra-day ticks) are available from other sources. As for the other picks that had sufficient lead-time, nothing more can be said. The mission of Beat the Dart is to remove all the hocus-pocus and make you rich. ... When reviewing past commentaries and the decision process use archive index on our home page and the Message Board to gain the understanding and mind set behind our philosophy.
 
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best idea

Company Name:

... November 14, 2006, .... 12:49pm ... Tessera Technologies Inc. (TSRA) - last $37.17. SHORT .Based on forward P/E TSRA is over-priced compared to industry. Any weakness in earnings would torpedoing stock. At top-end of trading range with resistance at $38.45, while interim support at $31.50, TSRA appears top-heavy. SHORT. No EXIT POINT determined.

7:30am ... FB Fuller Company (FUL) $24.96. FUL makes and markets adhesives and specialty chemicals. The sale of its powder coating business generated a gain of $60 million and should improve margins. Sound financials, good cash flow and superior management. are the right hooks for growth. FUL is value play. BUY with midterm EXIT POINT$28.50..


Ticker
Last Trade
Direction
Entrance Point
Exit Point
FUL
November 14, 2006
24.96
28.50


P/E Ratio: 18
Forward P/E Ratio: 15
Float Shares2: 59 m
Company Guidance: up
Recommendation3: upgrade by KeyBanc Capital Mkts.
Support4: *
Resistance5: *
Under Accumulation6: yes
Under Distribution7: no

 
today's action

... November 14, 2006.

...... DAY TRADER

... 2:48pm ... SELL BBC - last $6.07.

... 2:42pm .. COVER SHORT #4 ON EFUT - last $41.75.

... 2:22pm .... SHORT #4 EFUT - last $47.74.

... 1:03pm ... COVER #3 SHORT ON EFUT - last $42.81.

... 12:14pm ... BUY #2 ON BBC - last $5.99.

... 11:47am ... SHORT #3 ON EFUT -last $44.00.

... 11:38am. Removing MOT to 60-Day Summary list as a midterm BUY with EXIT POINT established at $29.50.

... 11:25am ... COVER #2 SHORT ON EFUT - last $43.70.

... 10:47am ... SHORT #2 EFUT - last $42.50.

... 10:38am ... SELL BBC - last $6.13.

... 10:34am ... COVER SHORT ON EFUT - last $41.31.

... 10:12am ... E-Future Information (EFUT) - last $46.25. SHORT Over-reaction. Under pressure.

... 9:54am ... Bosisen Biotech Inc. (BBC) - last $5.97. BUY. After declining to a support level.

... 9:34am .... Motorola Inc. (MOT )- last $21.31 . BUY. Under accumulation.

 

.

....... From the 60-Day Summary

.... November 14, 2006.

... 3:05pm ... Tenet Healthcare Company (THC) - last $7.28. SELL at market.

... 2:39pm ... Educate Inc. (EEEE) - last 7.40. SELL. Originally suggested at $7.93 on 10.25.06. EEEE is "dead money" and a good weed to pull. SELL at market.

.... 1:53pm - Verso Technologies Inc. (VRSO) - last $1.27. Originally suggested at $0.9980 on 10.19.06. With earnings due at 5:00pm today, the action in the stock appears suspect, and perhaps a telling sign. Take the profit and allow the dust to settle.

___________________________________________________________________________

UNREALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) of the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio.

November 14, 2006, 4:00pm ... $09,843.94.

November 13, 2006, 4:00pm ... $12,799.98.

 

.......Note: Changes will be instantly broadcast on our Message Board. Log-in, it's free.

EFFECTIVE 10.30.06 DAY TRADER WILL BE LAUNCHED TO TARGET ONE STOCK TO PLAY DURING THE DAY AND CLOSED OUT BEFORE 4:00pm. The intent is to suggest ideas that have a likelihood, either to advance or decline, depending it you're going long or short. Naturally, day trading should only be considered by individuals with an in depth language of the securities market, and understands experience and timing dynamics are intransigent parts of the same formula. As Mark Twain said, "We should be careful to get out of an experience only the wisdom that is in it - and stop there; lest we be like the cat that sits down on a hot stove. The cat will never sit down on a hot stove again - and that is well; but also the cat will never sit down on a cold one any more."... Practice by using phantom trades until you have the experience to go live. This way you'll learn first hand if you posses that special "hook" to be a successful day trader.

 

 

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Remember: knowledge can be communicated; wisdom is your department.


 

 
 

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1 Based on market conditions and other factors previewed in Best Ideas, changes can happen at any time. Accordingly, continue to log-in on a regular basis to maintain maximum performance.
2 Float - Available stock position in the hands of the general public of the total outstanding.
3 Institutional recommendations during the last 30 days.
4 Under technical analysis the term 'support' refers to a point in the stock's price that is immediately maintained and usually suggests an entrance point to purchase.
5 Under technical analysis the term 'resistance' suggests that a point in the stock's price has been reached and further gains are temporarily unlikely.
6 Under Accumulation occurs when abnormal buying in a particular stock takes place, and suggests that inside information may be at play and anticipates future price appreciation.
7 Under Distribution suggests that insiders and others are stealth fully selling on the belief that lower stock prices will occur.
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